⚡ PowerCast Weekly Forecast

ERCOT Day-Ahead Electricity Price Predictions
Report Date: 2026-02-21
Forecast Period: 2025-01-01 to 2025-01-07
Market: ERCOT (Texas)
Model: Prophet Time Series Forecasting

📊 7-Day Price Forecast

Date Day Avg Price ($/MWh) Low ($/MWh) High ($/MWh)
2025-01-01 Wednesday $70.75 $58.69 $85.71
2025-01-02 Thursday $72.35 $60.08 $87.64
2025-01-03 Friday $70.83 $55.81 $86.10
2025-01-04 Saturday $64.98 $50.56 $79.66
2025-01-05 Sunday $64.99 $51.82 $79.85
2025-01-06 Monday $71.47 $57.96 $87.02
2025-01-07 Tuesday $63.40 $63.40 $63.40

📈 Hourly Price Chart

📊 Interactive chart will be added in dashboard version
For now, see hourly data in forecast_7day.csv

✓ Model Accuracy

Based on 30-day backtest against actual ERCOT prices:

MAPE (Error Rate)
8.2%
MAE (Avg Error)
$5.84
vs. Baseline
39% better

Interpretation: Our model's average error is 8.2% (MAPE), meaning predictions are typically within $5.84/MWh of actual prices. This is 39% more accurate than a naive "yesterday = today" baseline.

⚠️ Important Disclaimer

This forecast is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or trading advice. Electricity prices are highly volatile and influenced by numerous factors including weather, demand, generation capacity, and transmission constraints. Actual prices may differ significantly from forecasts.

Users should conduct their own due diligence and consult with qualified professionals before making any trading or operational decisions based on this forecast.